Monday, November 3, 2014

Barrick Gold: It’s Not Just Falling Gold Prices

Barrick Gold (ABX) got a break when the price of gold stabilized around $1,200, providing hope that it could right size its debt and focus on its operations. But with gold tumbling once again, how much Barrick gets paid for what it produces is becoming an issue once again.

Bloomberg News

But falling gold prices isn’t the only problem facing Barrick Gold. In fact, Deutsche Bank’s Jorge Beristain and team cite three when they cut Barrick’s rating:

Despite an operationally solid 3Q14, we (again) are increasingly concerned on Barrick’s ability to deleverage its balance sheet given headwinds facing the gold price, dimming prospects for its copper business and lack of strategic action on partnerships. We have removed from our model contributions for Pascua-Lama, a key gold growth project which we had anticipated would attract a strategic partner to help shoulder remaining capex toward a projected 1Q18E production start-up. Recent news of proposed higher royalties in Zambia will stretch its Lumwana copper mine and could result in further writedowns. We cut our PT from $22 to $16/share and rating from Buy to Hold.

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Shares of Barrick Gold have dropped 2.1% to $11.62 at 10:31 a.m. today, even as the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has gained 0.5% to $17.31.

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